Podcast
Dwarkesh Podcast
Browse Dwarkesh Podcast episodes by guest, chapter, and topic with links back to the official source.
Episodes available
105
Episode pages currently available to browse.
With transcript
43
Episodes where chapter pages can be built from the transcript.
Guests
91
People you can follow across multiple appearances.
Chapters
1087
Time-stamped moments you can open directly.
Where to start
Start with the episodes that already have the strongest archive signals, then jump into the best moment from each one.
Host
The person behind this archive and the conversations collected here.
Dwarkesh Patel
Writer, interviewer, and host of Dwarkesh Podcast.
Dwarkesh Patel writes and hosts long-form interviews focused on history, science, economics, and frontier technology.
Recurring guests
People who appear most often across this podcast archive.
Recurring topics
Themes that come up again and again in this show.
Episode timeline
Scan the archive in order, then open any episode to jump into its chapters.
May 22, 2020 / Episode #1
Bryan Caplan - Nurturing Orphaned Ideas
Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify | Open borders, the idea trap, UBI, appeasement, China, the education system, and Bryan Caplan's next two books on poverty and housing regulation.
Best moment
Time horizons, growth, and sustainability
Time horizons, growth, and sustainability
August 22, 2020 / Episode #3
Matjaž Leonardis - Science, Identity, and Probability
Matjaž Leonardis has co-written a paper with David Deutsch about the Popper-Miller Theorem.
August 25, 2020 / Episode #4
Jason Crawford - The Roots of Progress
Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify | The history of technology and industry and the philosophy of progress.
Best moment
Subconscious vs conscious intelligence
Subconscious vs conscious intelligence
August 31, 2020 / Episode #5
Robin Hanson - The Long View
Robin Hanson is a professor of economics at George Mason University.
Best moment
Intro
Intro
September 4, 2020 / Episode #6
Caleb Watney - America's Innovation Engine
Caleb Watney is the director of innovation policy at the Progressive Policy Institute.
October 19, 2020 / Episode #7
Alex Tabarrok - Prizes, Prices, and Public Goods
Alex Tabarrok is a professor of economics at George Mason University and with Tyler Cowen a founder of the online education platform http://MRU.org.
Best moment
Antonine Rome, decadence, and declining accomplishment
Antonine Rome, decadence, and declining accomplishment
October 28, 2020 / Episode #8
Charles Murray - Human Accomplishment and the Future of Liberty
Listen now (112 min) | Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify
Best moment
Early work and ambition
Early work and ambition
November 16, 2020 / Episode #9
Scott Young - Ultralearning
Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify | Aggressive self-directed learning
Best moment
Journey through high school and college
Journey through high school and college
November 20, 2020 / Episode #10
Scott Aaronson - Quantum Computing, Complexity, and Creativity
Scott Aaronson is a Professor of Computer Science at The University of Texas at Austin, and director of its Quantum Information Center.
November 28, 2020 / Episode #11
Uncle Bob - The Long Reach of Code
Robert Martin (aka Uncle Bob) is a programming pioneer and bestselling author or Clean Code.
Best moment
Stockholm syndrome and the charisma of power
Stockholm syndrome and the charisma of power
May 28, 2021 / Episode #12
Michael Huemer - Anarchy, Capitalism, and Progress
Michael Huemer is a professor of philosophy at the University of Colorado.
June 4, 2021 / Episode #13
Sarah Fitz-Claridge - Taking Children Seriously
Sarah Fitz-Claridge is a writer, coach, and speaker with a fallibilist worldview.
August 9, 2021 / Episode #14
David Friedman - Dating Markets, Legal Systems, Bitcoin, and Automation
David Friedman is a famous anarcho-capitalist economist and legal scholar.
October 5, 2021 / Episode #15
Byrne Hobart - Optionality, Stagnation, and Secret Societies
Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify
Best moment
Does finite matter mean there's no beginning of infinity?
Does finite matter mean there's no beginning of infinity?
January 31, 2022 / Episode #16
David Deutsch - AI, America, Fun, & Bayes
David Deutsch is the founder of the field of quantum computing and the author The Beginning of Infinity and The Fabric of Reality .
Best moment
Should we credit expertise for nuclear detante and global prosperity?
Should we credit expertise for nuclear detante and global prosperity?
February 24, 2022 / Episode #17
Richard Hanania - Foreign Policy, Fertility, and Wokeness
Richard Hanania is the President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and the author of Public Choice Theory and the Illusion of Grand Strategy: How Generals, Weapons Manufacturers, and Foreign Governments Shape American Foreign Policy.
Best moment
How many workers are useless, and why is labor force participation so low?
How many workers are useless, and why is labor force participation so low?
April 12, 2022 / Episode #18
Bryan Caplan - Discrimination, Poverty, & Mental Illness
I interview the economist Bryan Caplan about his new book, Labor Econ Versus the World , and many other related topics.
Best moment
Scenius in Ancient Rome and America's Founding
Scenius in Ancient Rome and America's Founding
April 16, 2022 / Episode #19
Jimmy Soni - Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, and the Paypal Mafia
Jimmy Soni is the author of The Founders: The Story of Paypal and the Entrepreneurs Who Shaped Silicon Valley.
April 20, 2022 / Episode #20
Razib Khan - Genomics, Intelligence, and The Church of Science
Listen now (63 min) | Razib Khan is a writer, geneticist, and blogger with an interest in history, genetics, culture, and evolutionary psychology. Watch on Youtube: Follow Razib on Twitter: https://twitter.com/razibkhan Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp
Best moment
Alternate Causes for Japanese Atrocities Richard Hanania's Public Choice Theory in Imperial Japan (0:17:03)
Alternate Causes for Japanese Atrocities Richard Hanania's Public Choice Theory in Imperial Japan (0:17:03)
April 27, 2022 / Episode #21
Pradyu Prasad - Imperial Japan, the God Emperor, and Militarization in the Modern World
Today I talk to Pradyu Prasad (blogger and podcaster) about the book "Hirohito and the Making of Modern Japan" by Herbert P.
Best moment
The world when people cared about prediction markets
The world when people cared about prediction markets
May 5, 2022 / Episode #22
Stephen Grugett (Manifold Markets Founder) - Predictions Markets & Revolutionizing Governance
Listen now (51 min) | Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how predictions markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions. Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/ Watch on
Best moment
The fundamental theorem of John von Neumann’s game theory
The fundamental theorem of John von Neumann’s game theory
May 11, 2022 / Episode #23
Ananyo Bhattacharya - John von Neumann, Jewish Genius, and Nuclear War
Ananyo Bhattacharya is the author of The Man from the Future: The Visionary Life of John von Neumann .
Best moment
How do you deal when you're on the other side of the adverse selection?
How do you deal when you're on the other side of the adverse selection?
June 23, 2022 / Episode #24
Agustin Lebron - Trading, Crypto, and Adverse Selection
Agustin Lebron began his career as a trader and researcher at Jane Street Capital, one of the largest market-making firms in the world.
Best moment
Risk, efficiency, and human discretion in derivatives
Risk, efficiency, and human discretion in derivatives
July 5, 2022 / Episode #25
Sam Bankman-Fried - Crypto, Altruism, and Leadership
I flew to the Bahamas to interview Sam Bankman-Fried , the CEO of FTX!
Best moment
The Continental System and the industrial revolution
The Continental System and the industrial revolution
July 13, 2022 / Episode #26
Alexander Mikaberidze - Napoleon, War, Progress, and Global Order
Transcript + YouTube, Apple Podcasts, Spotify
Best moment
EA & Profit vs Nonprofit Entrepreneurship
EA & Profit vs Nonprofit Entrepreneurship
July 27, 2022 / Episode #27
Fin Moorhouse - Longtermism, Space, & Entrepreneurship
Fin Moorhouse is a Research Scholar and assistant to Toby Ord at Oxford University's Future of Humanity Institute .
Best moment
FLOPS to Emulate Human Cognition?
FLOPS to Emulate Human Cognition?
August 3, 2022 / Episode #28
Joseph Carlsmith - Utopia, AI, & Infinite Ethics
Joseph Carlsmith is a senior research analyst at Open Philanthropy and a doctoral student in philosophy at the University of Oxford .
Best moment
Contra Tyler Cowen on what’s most important
Contra Tyler Cowen on what’s most important
August 9, 2022 / Episode #29
Will MacAskill - Longtermism, Altruism, History, & Technology
Listen now | Improving the future, risk of extinction & collapse, technological & moral change, problems of academia, who changes history.
Best moment
Why hasn't natural selection already optimized humans?
Why hasn't natural selection already optimized humans?
August 23, 2022 / Episode #30
Steve Hsu - Intelligence, Embryo Selection, & The Future of Humanity
Steve Hsu is a Professor of Theoretical Physics at Michigan State University and cofounder of the company Genomic Prediction .
Best moment
Alpha & Efficient Markets
Alpha & Efficient Markets
September 8, 2022 / Episode #31
Austin Vernon - Energy Superabundance, Starship Missiles, & Finding Alpha
Austin Vernon is an engineer working on a new method for carbon capture, and he has one of the most interesting blogs on the internet, where he writes about engineering, software, economics, and investing.
Best moment
Will Reading Cowen’s Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?
Will Reading Cowen’s Book Help You Win Emergent Ventures?
September 28, 2022 / Episode #32
Tyler Cowen - Talent, Collapse, & Pessimism of Sex
It was my great pleasure to speak once again to Tyler Cowen.
Best moment
Why Cowen’s Talent Scouting Strategy is Ludicrous
Why Cowen’s Talent Scouting Strategy is Ludicrous
October 20, 2022 / Episode #33
Bryan Caplan - Feminists, Billionaires, and Demagogues
It was a fantastic pleasure to welcome Bryan Caplan back for a third time on the podcast!
Best moment
Why Saudi Arabia’s Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist
Why Saudi Arabia’s Line is Insane, Unrealistic, and Never going to Exist
October 27, 2022 / Episode #34
Brian Potter - Future of Construction, Ugly Modernism, & Environmental Review
Listen now | Why construction isn’t getting cheaper and faster, Environmental review makes new construction expensive and delayed, “Ugly” modern buildings are the result of better architecture, and much more!
November 8, 2022 / Episode #35
Kenneth T. Jackson - Robert Moses, Hero of New York?
I had a fascinating discussion about Robert Moses and The Power Broker with Professor Kenneth T.
Best moment
Europe’s Stagnation, Mumbai’s Safety, & Climate Change
Europe’s Stagnation, Mumbai’s Safety, & Climate Change
November 28, 2022 / Episode #36
Edward Glaeser - Cities, Terrorism, Housing, & Remote Work
Edward Glaeser is the chair of the Harvard department of economics, and the author of the best books and papers about cities (including Survival of the City and Triumph of the City ).
Best moment
Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids
Indexing Parental Involvement in Raising Talented Kids
December 1, 2022 / Episode #37
Byrne Hobart - FTX, Drugs, Twitter, Taiwan, & Monasticism
what happened at FTX, how drugs explain past financial bubbles, whether Musk Twitter will succeed, and much much more!
Best moment
Why didn’t previous wealth booms lead to new philanthropic movements?
Why didn’t previous wealth booms lead to new philanthropic movements?
December 15, 2022 / Episode #38
Nadia Asparouhova — Tech elites, democracy, open source, & philanthropy
Nadia Asparouhova is currently researching what the new tech elite will look like at nadia.xyz .
Best moment
Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking
Rewarding Leaders for Long Term Thinking
December 21, 2022 / Episode #39
Bethany McLean — Enron, FTX, 2008, Musk, frauds, & visionaries
This was one of my favorite episodes ever.
Best moment
Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks
Competition, Innovation , & AGI Bottlenecks
January 3, 2023 / Episode #40
Holden Karnofsky — History's most important century
Holden Karnofsky is the co-CEO of Open Philanthropy and co-founder of GiveWell .
Best moment
Transfer from Landowners to Google?
Transfer from Landowners to Google?
January 9, 2023 / Episode #41
Lars Doucet — Progress, poverty, Georgism, & why rent is too damn high
Listen now | "completely changed how I think about who creates value in the world and who leaches off it."
Best moment
Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?
Open Borders for Migrants Equivalent to Americans?
January 24, 2023 / Episode #42
Garett Jones — Immigration, national IQ, & less democracy
Garett Jones is an economist at George Mason University and the author of The Cultural Transplant , Hive Mind , and 10% Less Democracy .
Best moment
Managerial capitalism
Managerial capitalism
February 1, 2023 / Episode #43
Marc Andreessen — AI, crypto, 1000 Elon Musks, regrets, vulnerabilities, & managerial revolution
My podcast with the brilliant Marc Andreessen is out!
Best moment
FTX - Accomplishments, Beginnings of Trouble
FTX - Accomplishments, Beginnings of Trouble
March 13, 2023 / Episode #44
Brett Harrison — FTX US former president speaks out
Listen now | In his first longform interview since the fall of FTX
Best moment
Finding points of leverage
Finding points of leverage
March 22, 2023 / Episode #45
Nat Friedman (Github CEO) — Reading ancient scrolls, open source, & AI
It is said that the two greatest problems of history are: how to account for the rise of Rome, and how to account for her fall.
Best moment
What’s after generative models?
What’s after generative models?
March 27, 2023 / Episode #46
Ilya Sutskever (OpenAI Chief Scientist) — Why next-token prediction could surpass human intelligence
I went over to the OpenAI offices in San Fransisco to ask the Chief Scientist and cofounder of OpenAI, Ilya Sutskever , about: * time to AGI * leaks and spies * what's after generative models * post AGI futures * working with Microsoft and competing with Google * difficulty of aligning superhuman AI Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00) - Time to AGI (05:57) - What’s after generative models? (10:57) - Data, models, and research (15:27) - Alignment (20:53) - Post AGI Future (26:56) - New ideas are overrated (36:22) - Is progress inevitable? (41:27) - Future Breakthroughs Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Writing fiction & whether rationality helps you win
Writing fiction & whether rationality helps you win
April 6, 2023 / Episode #47
Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
For 4 hours, I tried to come up reasons for why AI might not kill us all, and Eliezer Yudkowsky explained why I was wrong.
Best moment
Deterrence, disarmament, North Korea, Taiwan
Deterrence, disarmament, North Korea, Taiwan
May 23, 2023 / Episode #48
Richard Rhodes — The making of the atomic bomb
Listen now | developing a powerful, unprecedented, & potentially apocalyptic technology within an uncertain arms-race situation
Best moment
Can AIs do AI research?
Can AIs do AI research?
June 14, 2023 / Episode #49
Carl Shulman (Pt 1) — Intelligence explosion, primate evolution, robot doublings, & alignment
In terms of the depth and range of topics, this episode is the best I’ve done.
June 26, 2023 / Episode #50
Carl Shulman (Pt 2) — AI Takeover, bio & cyber attacks, detecting deception, & humanity's far future
The second half of my 7 hour conversation with Carl Shulman is out!
Best moment
New media for learning (video, games, streaming)
New media for learning (video, games, streaming)
July 12, 2023 / Episode #51
Andy Matuschak — The reason most learning tools fail
A few weeks ago, I sat beside Andy Matuschak to record how he reads a textbook.
Best moment
Alignment & mechanistic interpretability
Alignment & mechanistic interpretability
August 8, 2023 / Episode #52
Dario Amodei (Anthropic CEO) — The hidden pattern behind every AI breakthrough
Here is my conversation with Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic.
Best moment
Japan/Germany vs Iraq/Afghanistan occupation
Japan/Germany vs Iraq/Afghanistan occupation
October 4, 2023 / Episode #53
Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake
I learned so much from Sarah Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the Naval War College.
Best moment
Does winning math competitions require AGI?
Does winning math competitions require AGI?
October 12, 2023 / Episode #54
Grant Sanderson (@3blue1brown) — Past, present, & future of mathematics
I had a lot of fun chatting with Grant Sanderson (who runs the excellent 3Blue1Brown YouTube channel) about: - Whether advanced math requires AGI - What careers should mathematically talented students pursue - Why Grant plans on doing a stint as a high school teacher - Tips for self teaching - Does Godel’s incompleteness theorem actually matter - Why are good explanations so hard to find? - And much more Watch on YouTube . Listen on Spotify , Apple Podcasts , or any other podcast platform. Full transcript here . Timestamps (0:00:00) - Does winning math competitions require AGI? (0:08:24) - Where to allocate mathematical talent? (0:17:34) - Grant’s miracle year (0:26:44) - Prehistoric humans and math (0:33:33) - Why is a lot of math so new? (0:44:44) - Future of education (0:56:28) - Math helped me realize I wasn’t that smart (0:59:25) - Does Godel’s incompleteness theorem matter? (1:05:12) - How Grant makes videos (1:10:13) - Grant’s math exposition competition (1:20:44) - Self teaching Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Impact of Deepmind on safety vs capabilities
Impact of Deepmind on safety vs capabilities
October 26, 2023 / Episode #55
Shane Legg (DeepMind Founder) — 2028 AGI, superhuman alignment, new architectures
I had a lot of fun chatting with Shane Legg - Founder and Chief AGI Scientist, Google DeepMind!
Best moment
Will this revolutionize theoretical CS and math?
Will this revolutionize theoretical CS and math?
October 31, 2023 / Episode #56
Paul Christiano — Preventing an AI takeover
Paul Christiano is the world’s leading AI safety researcher.
Best moment
Bismarck’s career as an example of AI (mis)alignment
Bismarck’s career as an example of AI (mis)alignment
November 15, 2023 / Episode #57
Dominic Cummings - COVID, Brexit, & Fixing Western Governance
Here is my interview with Dominic Cummings on why Western governments are so dangerously broken, and how to fix them before an even more catastrophic crisis.
Best moment
How Truman Prevented Nuclear War
How Truman Prevented Nuclear War
November 22, 2023 / Episode #58
Andrew Roberts — Why Hitler lost WWII, Churchill as applied historian, & Napoleon as startup founder
Andrew Roberts is the world's best biographer and one of the leading historians of our time.
Best moment
Growing up during Cultural Revolution
Growing up during Cultural Revolution
November 29, 2023 / Episode #59
Jung Chang (Wild Swans author) — Living through history's largest man-made famine
A true honor to speak with Jung Chang.
Best moment
Technocracy & political philosophy
Technocracy & political philosophy
January 31, 2024 / Episode #60
Tyler Cowen — Hayek, Keynes, & Smith on AI, animal spirits, anarchy, & growth
It was a great pleasure speaking with Tyler Cowen for the 3rd time.
Best moment
Advice for 20-30 year olds
Advice for 20-30 year olds
February 21, 2024 / Episode #61
Patrick Collison — Why Silicon Valley's most talented should leave
We discuss: * what it takes to process $1 trillion/year * how to build multi-decade APIs, companies, and relationships * what's next for Stripe (increasing the GDP of the internet is quite an open ended prompt, and the Collison brothers are just getting started). Plus the amazing stuff they're doing at Arc Institute , the financial infrastructure for AI agents, playing devil's advocate against progress studies, and much more. Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Timestamps (00:00:00) - Advice for 20-30 year olds (00:12:12) - Progress studies (00:22:21) - Arc Institute (00:34:27) - AI & Fast Grants (00:43:46) - Stripe history (00:55:44) - Stripe Climate (01:01:39) - Beauty & APIs (01:11:51) - Financial innards (01:28:16) - Stripe culture & future (01:41:56) - Virtues of big businesses (01:51:41) - John Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Safety, open source, and security of weights
Safety, open source, and security of weights
February 28, 2024 / Episode #62
Demis Hassabis — Scaling, superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, AlphaFold
Here is my episode with Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind We discuss: * Why scaling is an artform * Adding search, planning, & AlphaZero type training atop LLMs * Making sure rogue nations can't steal weights * The right way to align superhuman AIs and do an intelligence explosion Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Read the full transcript here . Timestamps (0:00:00) - Nature of intelligence (0:05:56) - RL atop LLMs (0:16:31) - Scaling and alignment (0:24:13) - Timelines and intelligence explosion (0:28:42) - Gemini training (0:35:30) - Governance of superhuman AIs (0:40:42) - Safety, open source, and security of weights (0:47:00) - Multimodal and further progress (0:54:18) - Inside Google DeepMind Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon
Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon
April 18, 2024 / Episode #63
Mark Zuckerberg — Llama 3, $10B models, Caesar Augustus, & 1 GW datacenters
Mark Zuckerberg on: - Llama 3 - open sourcing towards AGI - custom silicon, synthetic data, & energy constraints on scaling - Caesar Augustus, intelligence explosion, bioweapons, $10b models, & much more Enjoy! Watch on YouTube . Listen on Apple Podcasts , Spotify , or any other podcast platform. Human edited transcript with helpful links here . Timestamps (00:00:00) - Llama 3 (00:08:32) - Coding on path to AGI (00:25:24) - Energy bottlenecks (00:33:20) - Is AI the most important technology ever? (00:37:21) - Dangers of open source (00:53:57) - Caesar Augustus and metaverse (01:04:53) - Open sourcing the $10b model & custom silicon (01:15:19) - Zuck as CEO of Google+ Sponsors If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, fill out this form . * This episode is brought to you by Stripe , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. Learn more at stripe.com . * V7 Go is a tool to automate multimodal tasks using GenAI, reliably and at scale. Use code DWARKESH20 for 20% off on the pro plan. Learn more here . * CommandBar is an AI user assistant that any software product can embed to non-annoyingly assist, support, and unleash their users. Used by forward-thinking CX, product, growth, and marketing teams. Learn more at commandbar.com . Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Pre-training, post-training, and future capabilities
Pre-training, post-training, and future capabilities
May 15, 2024 / Episode #64
John Schulman (OpenAI Cofounder) — Reasoning, RLHF, & plan for 2027 AGI
Chatted with John Schulman (cofounded OpenAI and led ChatGPT creation) on how posttraining tames the shoggoth, and the nature of the progress to come...
Best moment
Dwarkesh’s immigration story and path to the podcast
Dwarkesh’s immigration story and path to the podcast
June 4, 2024 / Episode #65
Leopold Aschenbrenner — 2027 AGI, China/US super-intelligence race, & the return of history
Chatted with my friend Leopold Aschenbrenner on the trillion dollar nationalized cluster, CCP espionage at AI labs, how unhobblings and scaling can lead to 2027 AGI, dangers of outsourcing clusters to Middle East, leaving OpenAI, and situational awareness.
Best moment
Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis
Future of AI progress: deep learning + program synthesis
June 11, 2024 / Episode #66
Francois Chollet — Why the biggest AI models can't solve simple puzzles
Here is my conversation with Francois Chollet and Mike Knoop on the $1 million ARC-AGI Prize they're launching today .
Best moment
COVID, AI, & how government deals with crisis
COVID, AI, & how government deals with crisis
June 26, 2024 / Episode #67
Tony Blair — Why political leaders keep failing at major change
I chatted with Tony Blair about: - What he learned from Lee Kuan Yew - Intelligence agencies track record on Iraq & Ukraine - What he tells the dozens of world leaders who come seek advice from him - How much of a PM’s time is actually spent governing - What will AI’s July 1914 moment look like from inside the Cabinet? Enjoy! Watch the video on YouTube . Read the full transcript here . Follow me on Twitter for updates on future episodes. Sponsors - Prelude Security is the world’s leading cyber threat management automation platform. Prelude Detect quickly transforms threat intelligence into validated protections so organizations can know with certainty that their defenses will protect them against the latest threats. Prelude is backed by Sequoia Capital, Insight Partners, The MITRE Corporation, CrowdStrike, and other leading investors. Learn more here . - This episode is brought to you by Stripe , financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue. If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out this page . Timestamps (00:00:00) – A prime minister’s constraints (00:04:12) – CEOs vs. politicians (00:10:31) – COVID, AI, & how government deals with crisis (00:21:24) – Learning from Lee Kuan Yew (00:27:37) – Foreign policy & intelligence (00:31:12) – How much leadership actually matters (00:35:34) – Private vs. public tech (00:39:14) – Advising global leaders (00:46:45) – The unipolar moment in the 90s Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Best moment
Are young people too busy playing Factorio to found startups?
Are young people too busy playing Factorio to found startups?
July 24, 2024 / Episode #68
Patrick McKenzie — Money laundering, big tech censorship, SBF & Japan
Listen now | Unconstitutional censorship, money laundering, Factorio, and a friendly debate about crypto.
Best moment
Balancing Being a Humanist and a Scholar
Balancing Being a Humanist and a Scholar
August 22, 2024 / Episode #69
Joe Carlsmith — Preventing an AI takeover
Also AI motivations, Stalin, techno-capital, and much, much more
Best moment
“Lost civilizations” and our Neanderthal ancestry
“Lost civilizations” and our Neanderthal ancestry
August 29, 2024 / Episode #70
David Reich — How one small tribe conquered the world 70,000 years ago
Neanderthal Extinction, Evolution of Intelligence, & Yamnaya Genocide
Best moment
Yergin’s conversations with Putin & Modi
Yergin’s conversations with Putin & Modi
September 18, 2024 / Episode #71
Daniel Yergin — Oil destroyed Hitler, fracking destroyed Putin
the rise of America, WW1, WW2, secular stagnation, the Middle East, Ukraine, how Xi and Putin think, and basically anything else that's happened since 1860.
Best moment
Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US
Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US
October 2, 2024 / Episode #72
@Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works
A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.
Best moment
Engineering constraints for future civilizations
Engineering constraints for future civilizations
December 26, 2024 / Episode #73
Adam Brown — Bubble universes, space elevators, & AdS/CFT
Watch now (164 mins) | Adam Brown is a founder and lead of BlueShift which is cracking maths and reasoning at Google DeepMind and a theoretical physicist at Stanford.
January 9, 2025 / Episode #74
Tyler Cowen — The #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans
Why he thinks AI won't drive explosive economic growth
Best moment
Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts
Pactomania and Sino-Soviet conflicts
January 16, 2025 / Episode #75
Sarah Paine — The war for India (lecture & interview)
First of three new lectures from Professor Paine, followed by my questions. This time: Mao v Khrushchev v Nehru v LBJ
Best moment
Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism
Buddhism, Shinto, Confucianism
January 23, 2025 / Episode #76
Sarah Paine — Why Japan lost WWII (lecture & interview)
Continuing our WWII series: the ideas and economics behind Japanese imperialism and the fatal flaw in their military culture that cost them the war
January 30, 2025 / Episode #77
Sarah Paine — How Mao conquered China (lecture & interview)
How did Mao go from military genius to peacetime disaster? How can someone shrewd enough to win a civil war outnumbered 5 to 1 decide "let's kill all the birds"?
Best moment
Automated chip design and intelligence explosion
Automated chip design and intelligence explosion
February 12, 2025 / Episode #78
Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer — 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI
Two of Gemini's co-leads on Google's path to AGI
Best moment
Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI?
Does Satya Nadella believe in AGI?
February 19, 2025 / Episode #79
Satya Nadella — Microsoft’s AGI plan & quantum breakthrough
AGI is not the real benchmark: 10% economic growth is
Best moment
Why Industrial Revolution happened in Europe
Why Industrial Revolution happened in Europe
March 12, 2025 / Episode #80
Joseph Henrich — Humans defeated smarter species with cultural evolution
Plus how the Catholic Church accidentally caused the Industrial Revolution
Best moment
AI models not making connections across fields
AI models not making connections across fields
March 25, 2025 / Episode #81
AMA: career advice given AGI, how I research ft. Sholto & Trenton
"The Scaling Era: An Oral History of AI, 2019-2025" out now on Stripe Press!
Best moment
Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence
Even reasoning models lack animal intelligence
April 17, 2025 / Episode #82
AGI is still 30 years away — Ege Erdil & Tamay Besiroglu
The economy will literally double every year afterwards
Best moment
How Llama 4 compares to other models
How Llama 4 compares to other models
April 29, 2025 / Episode #83
Mark Zuckerberg — AI will write most Meta code in 18 months
“The world is going to get a lot funnier, weirder, and quirkier.”
Best moment
Why are LLMs ‘baby AGI’ but not AlphaZero?
Why are LLMs ‘baby AGI’ but not AlphaZero?
May 22, 2025 / Episode #84
Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
Listen now | Scaling reinforcement learning, tracing circuits, and the path to fully autonomous agents
Best moment
How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions
How the Politburo Standing Committee makes decisions
May 29, 2025 / Episode #85
Xi Jinping’s paranoid approach to AGI, debt crisis, & Politburo politics — Victor Shih
Or, how China’s political system actually works
Best moment
America's inflation crisis is coming
America's inflation crisis is coming
June 12, 2025 / Episode #86
"China is digging out of a crisis. And America’s luck is wearing thin." — Ken Rogoff
A debt shock is coming for both China and the US.
Best moment
Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?
Will China have a Japan-style financial crisis?
June 19, 2025 / Episode #87
Why China's manufacturing economy is dominating — Arthur Kroeber
“China wants it all, and they can have it"
Best moment
Why did so many go along with enforced famine and the Great Terror?
Why did so many go along with enforced famine and the Great Terror?
July 10, 2025 / Episode #88
Stephen Kotkin — How Stalin became the most powerful dictator in history
The most consequential figure of the 20th century
Best moment
Pearl Harbor (1941) vs surprise attack of Port Arthur (1904)
Pearl Harbor (1941) vs surprise attack of Port Arthur (1904)
July 25, 2025 / Episode #89
Sarah Paine — How Imperial Japan defeated Tsarist Russia & Qing China
Plus, the most lopsided naval battle in human history
Best moment
Tech that’s sparing 100s of millions of animals/year
Tech that’s sparing 100s of millions of animals/year
August 7, 2025 / Episode #90
Artificial meat is harder than artificial intelligence — Lewis Bollard
“Chickens are unbeatable at converting grain into protein”
Best moment
Three reasons evolution didn’t optimize for longevity
Three reasons evolution didn’t optimize for longevity
August 21, 2025 / Episode #91
Evolution designed us to die fast; we can change that — Jacob Kimmel
Is the answer already in our genome?
Best moment
If hardware’s the bottleneck, does China win by default?
If hardware’s the bottleneck, does China win by default?
September 12, 2025 / Episode #92
Fully autonomous robots are much closer than you think – Sergey Levine
Plus, how VLA models work, self-improvement from deployment, and China’s hardware advantage
Best moment
Current architectures generalize poorly out of distribution
Current architectures generalize poorly out of distribution
September 26, 2025 / Episode #93
Richard Sutton – Father of RL thinks LLMs are a dead end
Watch now (66 mins) | LLMs aren’t Bitter-Lesson-pilled
Best moment
Eukaryotes are the great filter for intelligent life
Eukaryotes are the great filter for intelligent life
October 10, 2025 / Episode #94
Nick Lane – Life as we know it is chemically inevitable
Life is continuous with Earth’s geochemistry
Best moment
Evolution of intelligence & culture
Evolution of intelligence & culture
October 17, 2025 / Episode #95
Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
"The problems are tractable, but they're still difficult”
Best moment
How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness
How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness
October 31, 2025 / Episode #96
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
Plus, where Russia and China go from here
Best moment
Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
November 12, 2025 / Episode #97
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
Plus a tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world
Best moment
SSI’s plan to straight-shot superintelligence
SSI’s plan to straight-shot superintelligence
November 25, 2025 / Episode #98
Ilya Sutskever — We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research
“These models somehow just generalize dramatically worse than people. It's a very fundamental thing.”
Best moment
Did Reagan single-handedly win the Cold War?
Did Reagan single-handedly win the Cold War?
December 19, 2025 / Episode #99
Sarah Paine — Why Russia Lost the Cold War
Oil crisis, Sino-Soviet split, ethnic rebellions, and arms build-up
Best moment
The brain’s secret sauce is the reward functions, not the architecture
The brain’s secret sauce is the reward functions, not the architecture
December 30, 2025 / Episode #100
Adam Marblestone — AI is missing something fundamental about the brain
The brain's secret sauce is its reward functions, not its architecture.
Best moment
Optimus and humanoid manufacturing
Optimus and humanoid manufacturing
February 5, 2026 / Episode #101
Elon Musk — "In 36 months, the cheapest place to put AI will be space”
“Those who live in software land are about to have a hard lesson in hardware.”
Best moment
Why can’t China and America both have a country of geniuses in a datacenter?
Why can’t China and America both have a country of geniuses in a datacenter?
February 13, 2026 / Episode #102
Dario Amodei — "We are near the end of the exponential"
"That's why I'm sending this message of urgency"
Best moment
Why it was so hard for Gutenberg to make any money off the printing press
Why it was so hard for Gutenberg to make any money off the printing press
March 6, 2026 / Episode #103
Why Leonardo was a saboteur, Gutenberg went broke, and Florence was weird – Ada Palmer
Ambassador visiting Renaissance Florence: “Where am I? None of this has existed for a thousand years."
Best moment
Nvidia secured TSMC allocation early; Google is getting squeezed
Nvidia secured TSMC allocation early; Google is getting squeezed
March 13, 2026 / Episode #104
Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
Plus, why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago
Best moment
We need a semi-formal language for the way that scientists actually talk to each other
We need a semi-formal language for the way that scientists actually talk to each other
March 20, 2026 / Episode #105
Terence Tao – Kepler, Newton, and the true nature of mathematical discovery
“And what those stories teach us about how AI will revolutionize math”