Episode #438 from 1:10:12

Collapse of empires

What do you think it takes for the American Empire to not collapse in the near term future, in the next a hundred years, to continue flourishing? Well, the single biggest thing that is often actually not mentioned in history books, but Durant does mention it, is the birthright. So perhaps to some, a counterintuitive thing happens when civilizations are winning for too long, the birth rate declines. It can often decline quite rapidly. We're seeing that throughout the world today. Currently, South Korea is, I think maybe the lowest fertility rate, but there are many others that are close to it. It's like 0.8 I think. If the birth rate doesn't decline further, South Korea will lose roughly 60% of its population. But every year that birth rate is dropping, and this is true through most of the world. I don't mean to single out South Korea, it's been happening throughout the world. So as soon as any given civilization reaches a level of prosperity, the birth rate drops.

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What do you think it takes for the American Empire to not collapse in the near term future, in the next a hundred years, to continue flourishing? Well, the single biggest thing that is often actually not mentioned in history books, but Durant does mention it, is the birthright. So perhaps to some, a counterintuitive thing happens when civilizations are winning for too long, the birth rate declines. It can often decline quite rapidly. We're seeing that throughout the world today. Currently, South Korea is, I think maybe the lowest fertility rate, but there are many others that are close to it. It's like 0.8 I think. If the birth rate doesn't decline further, South Korea will lose roughly 60% of its population. But every year that birth rate is dropping, and this is true through most of the world. I don't mean to single out South Korea, it's been happening throughout the world. So as soon as any given civilization reaches a level of prosperity, the birth rate drops.

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