Episode #457 from 1:16:46
Stagflation
Yeah. So that's a fascinating story. And so what happens is Friedman has advanced all these ideas, he's ruled the economics profession, he's built a political profile and then he becomes the head of the American Economics Association. And he is asked in that role to give a presidential address. And so he gives his presidential address December 1967, and he says, "I'm going to talk about inflation and I'm going to talk about the trade-off between inflation and unemployment." And this is what's generally known as the Phillips Curve and the Phillips Curve in its original form is derived of post-World War II data. So it's derived of about 12 years of data, and it shows that when inflation goes up, unemployment goes down. And the idea would make sense that as the economy's heating up and lots of things are happening, more and more people are getting hired. And so this relationship has led policymakers to think that sometimes inflation is good, and if you want to lower unemployment, you could let inflation go a little bit. And in the crude forms, it becomes to seem like a menu. Like you could take your model and you could plug in, I want this much unemployment. And it would say, well, great, this is how much inflation you should do. And so then you would target that inflation rate.
Why this moment matters
Yeah. So that's a fascinating story. And so what happens is Friedman has advanced all these ideas, he's ruled the economics profession, he's built a political profile and then he becomes the head of the American Economics Association. And he is asked in that role to give a presidential address. And so he gives his presidential address December 1967, and he says, "I'm going to talk about inflation and I'm going to talk about the trade-off between inflation and unemployment." And this is what's generally known as the Phillips Curve and the Phillips Curve in its original form is derived of post-World War II data. So it's derived of about 12 years of data, and it shows that when inflation goes up, unemployment goes down. And the idea would make sense that as the economy's heating up and lots of things are happening, more and more people are getting hired. And so this relationship has led policymakers to think that sometimes inflation is good, and if you want to lower unemployment, you could let inflation go a little bit. And in the crude forms, it becomes to seem like a menu. Like you could take your model and you could plug in, I want this much unemployment. And it would say, well, great, this is how much inflation you should do. And so then you would target that inflation rate.